Democracy News
Causes for Concern ahead of Philippine Elections
May 7, 2010
By: Benjamin Russell | Printer Friendly
With Philippine elections set for May 10th, international observers are pointing to a number of challenges ahead of what may be a pivotal moment for the country.
In a statement, the World Forum for Democratization in Asia (WFDA) said the elections “have the potential to return the Philippines to the path of democratic development, but they could also create a new crisis and setback, which would have negative repercussions around the region.”
The potential for such a crisis was highlighted in an International Crisis Group (ICG) report released earlier this month, which raises concerns over increased tensions between rival clans on the southern island of Mindanao. Last year, 57 politicians and journalists were ambushed and killed ahead of gubernatorial elections in Mindanao. Investigations into the massacre are ongoing, with several members of the ruling Ampatuan clan under suspicion for their involvement. According to the ICG report, though, the Ampatuans’ absence from this round of elections (as a result of the investigations) is unlikely to have much of a bearing on the nature of governance on the island.
“The Ampatuans’ opponents may give warlordism a gentler face,” the report says, “but political change would consist of substituting one family for another, not of any fundamental alteration of the system.”
Meanwhile, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who will leave office on June 30, is in the midst of negotiations with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). The ICG fears talks might break down if an agreement is not reached before the end of Arroyo’s term. “If no substantive agreement is reached before Arroyo leaves office, responsibility for continuing the negotiations will fall to her successor, and it is open to question whether any of the top contenders has the interest or political will to push forward with peace,” the report says.
The voting process itself has also come into question as test runs of automated vote-counting machines revealed significant glitches in the system. Thousands of the machines failed to tally votes for the same candidate and are now being reconfigured. The WFDA called on the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) to “activate all possible contingency plans, including as much manual backup voting as possible, to increase public confidence that the reported results accurately reflect the will of the voters”
Nevertheless, election officials are confident that the contest will proceed as scheduled. "I have no doubt that the elections will go through. If there will be some areas that there will be some postponement, there might even be a delay in the proclamation. But we should allow the election to take its course,'' said, Christian Monsod a former Chairman of the COMELEC.
Still, with so much at stake, onlookers worry that a failed election might facilitate the “conditions for a military takeover or any other unconstitutional rule… Whoever takes office on 30 June will face a daunting, long-term task to restart the process of democratic consolidation and peacemaking in the Philippines. However, the immediate goal for everyone is to ensure that the handover occurs properly in the first place,” the statement said.
Sources:
International Crisis Group - Philippines: Pre-election Tensions in Central Mindanao
Digital Journal – Manny Pacquiao Says he is Winning May 10 Election
Digital Journal – Philippine Election Will Push through as Scheduled Despite Glitch
Wall St. Journal – Philippines Political Heir Faces Reality
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