Difficult Path for Belarusian Opposition
21 March 2006

International response to the election in Belarus has been largely negative.  The United States announced that it could not “accept as legitimate the election results announced yesterday.”  It also stated that, in coordination with the European Union, “the United States is preparing to take serious, appropriate measures against those officials responsible for election fraud and other human rights abuses.”

At a Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty briefing on the election in Belarus, Celeste Wallander, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, commented on some of the lessons of the election.  She noted that things were “missing” that prevented the opposition from going further, like in Ukraine.  The first is that there was no disagreement among the elites in Belarus, making it harder for the opposition to find support.  Second is the general lack of attention given to the opposition, due in part to the stringent media controls, resulting in difficulty to sustain excitement about the opportunity for change.  Wallander noted two positives about the situation.  The first is that nearly 10,000 people took part in protesting the election, at great personal risk.  This, she argues, helped draw international attention that the regime wishes to avoid.  The second positive she saw about the situation were the relatively strong stances taken by the United States and Europe.  She went on to describe that it may represent the re-emergence a trans-Atlantic cooperation, which has fallen off in recent years. 

Others at the RFE/RL briefing warned about the dangers of international attention falling off in the near future.  While the coalescence of the opposition was hailed by some as highly significant and “the beginning of the end”, others warned that they might face even more serious persecution, especially if international attention wanes in the following years.  From Minsk, it was reported that people were being arrested in ones and twos as they left the square to get food and drinks, where they would be out of view of cameras and the international community.

Experts at the briefing and over the phone from Minsk warned that Europe and especially the United States might not have an influential voice inside Belarus.  In response to the Czech Ambassador’s question as to whether locals knew that the international community supported free and fair elections, Steven Myers, of the New York Times, reported that the saturation of the media with negative images of the United States and the West has created a significant feeling among Belarusians that they do not want foreigners “meddling” in their affairs.  He reported that the US statement condemning the elections, when heard by the opposition protesters, “caused a cheer, but little more.”