China’s “Third Revolution”: A Gateway toward Democracy?
WWICS Panel, Tuesday, October 26, 2004

On October 16, 2004, the Woodrow Wilson Center brought together a panel of scholars who debated whether the current trends in China are a democratic “Revolution,” and whether further democratization can be expected in the future. On the panel, Professor Susan Ogden from Northeastern University discussed the possible scenarios of the progress of democratization and the likelihood of whether or not there would be a gradual, controlled transition to democracy that would coincide with the downfall of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Professor Anne Thurston also spoke on the panel, in her capacity as associate professor of Chinese Studies at the John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), as well as a current fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center. Her scholarly focus is at the grassroots level, and her account of the feelings of the people at that level is one of worry at the “chaos” and instability created by accelerating change. In her analysis, the people are concerned at the probable instability during the transition period. Many have worries regarding corruption, a rising gap of inequality, the extent to which labor unions are allowed to function, as well as the population levels and demographic changes seen in mass relocation from country to city.

However, Professor Thurston seemed optimistic at the steps that have been taken toward democracy, very prominently including the local village elections, to which she has acted as international observer. She observed that, despite the lack of any democratic history or tradition, the Chinese people demonstrate seemingly inherent democratic traits when given this opportunity. She also discussed the rise of NGOs and Government-Organized NGOs (GONGOs) under the leadership of “social entrepreneurs” whose objectives are to bring about true change throughout China. Professor Thurston also cited the rise of religion as an indicator that the Chinese government no longer controls the way people think to the same extent.

Professor McCormick of Marquette University approached liberalization in China from the perspective of the media. He discussed what was known as the “Velvet Curtain,” under which the Chinese media were given luxuries and special treatment in return for self-censorship. The commercialization of the Chinese media, begun in the 1970’s with the introduction of advertising, has begun to open up the media, at least for short periods of time, to stories the CCP may otherwise not have tolerated. Professor McCormick’s main discussion was of sensationalist media, giving examples of how anti-government news stories were allowed in the newspapers, or more likely on the internet, for a short period of time while a scandal grew, followed by a crack-down of CCP-enforced censorship of the materials.

Louisa Coan Greve, a senior program officer at the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), wrapped up the discussion with interpretive remarks evaluating China’s prospects for democratic transition given the previous remarks. While the other speakers expressed optimism at the steps that have been taken in the liberalization of the media, the labor force, and local governance, Ms. Greve stood strong on her opinion that there is no indication that the CCP will relinquish control or fall from power soon. As long as the CCP controls all aspects of political life in China, true democracy cannot be achieved.