Crisis between Hezbollah & Israel Threatens to Destabilize Lebanon’s Fragile Democratic Government
July 17, 2006

Following six days of Israeli bombardment, the Lebanese government is faced with escalating pressure from world leaders as well as its militant Shiite party. The international community has repeatedly demanded that the Lebanese government disarm Hezbollah, while the militant Shiite party has sought to increase its power within the government. In the meantime, Lebanese officials are counting on the United Nations to pass a resolution demanding a ceasefire.

US President Bush expressed his concerns that the Israeli attacks could endanger the fragile democratic government of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, which does not control the radical Islamic Hezbollah militia targeted by Israel. “Democracy in Lebanon is an important part of laying a foundation for peace in that region,” President Bush said. “The concern is that any activities by Israel to protect herself will weaken that government, or topple that government, and we've made it clear in our discussions,” Bush added.
US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, told Prime Minister Siniora that the US understands that although his government does not have control over Hezbollah, it must exercise as much influence as possible to arrange for the Israeli soldiers' release, officials said. Israeli Prime Minister Olmert labeled Hezbollah's actions an “act of war” by Lebanon, but US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack indicated that the Bush administration does not blame the Lebanese government, as Hezbollah operates without the government's consent.

Prime Minister Siniora is regarded as friendly to the US and the Bush administration has urged him to disarm Hezbollah through a process of national reconciliation. Since his election, the prime minister promised to eventually disarm Hezbollah through negotiation. He included members of the militant group into his cabinet and established communication links with its leaders. Instead, Hezbollah has sought to divert attention away from its arms to issues outside Lebanon, such as that of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Over the past year, the US has urged Syria to recognize Lebanon’s sovereignty and has made several attempts to support the Siniora government. The Bush administration is now concerned that the Israeli military offenses in Lebanon could give Hezbollah an advantage by helping pro-Syrian forces at the expense of weakening the pro-US Lebanese government. Consequently, it is feared that the violence in Lebanon, as well as Hezbollah’s actions, could topple the current government and give rise to another pro-Syrian government, similar to that of the previous 29 years when Syria controlled much of Lebanon’s affairs.  

Sources

Lebanon’s Government Appears to be at a Stand Still,” The New York Times, 7/14/06
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/14/world/middleeast/14cnd-lebanon.html

“U.S. Urges Restraint by Israel; Democratic Government Seen Facing Jeopardy in Lebanon,” The Washington Post, 7/14/06 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/13/AR2006071301870.html

“U.S. Worried Israeli Operations Could Weaken Lebanese Government,” CNN, 7/14/06 http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/13/labott/