Nigeria Avoids a Governance Crisis
Drafted By CCD Board Member Herman J. Cohen for publication at www.pinr.com
Posted 22 June 2006

A month ago, the Nigerian Senate defeated a proposed constitutional amendment that would have expanded the presidential mandate limit from two to three terms of four years each. President Olusegun Obasanjo, who will be completing his second and last term in May 2007, exerted significant leverage in support of the amendment. Without ever stating that he favored the amendment, Obasanjo let it be known that only he could be trusted to continue and solidify the reforms that he has instituted since taking office in 1999.

The defeat of the amendment, which would have extended the term limits of the 36 state governors as well as of the head of state, avoided a crisis. The political class feared that amending the constitution to favor an incumbent would strike a blow against the democratic ethic. There were strong feelings that if Obasanjo were elected to a third term, it would be the first step toward a life presidency, and a return of authoritarian rule.

Even more important, there was no groundswell of public opinion in favor of extending Obasanjo's tenure in office. On the contrary, the president's reforms were essentially in the macroeconomic and governance sectors. Obasanjo managed to solve the external debt problem by making a deal with the Paris Club that essentially settled for 30 cents on the dollar. This was a remarkable achievement. Obasanjo also managed to root out a significant amount of corrupt practices that had been built into the governmental system. His banking system reforms have been highly praised by the international community.

Obasanjo also gave a strong push to the process of privatizing moribund state enterprises such as fertilizer, aluminum, and electric power production. Nevertheless, benefits for Nigeria's vast poverty stricken population were still not apparent. Rural Nigerians appeared to have sunk lower into poverty during Obasanjo's tenure despite increasingly high prices for Nigeria's production of 2.5 million barrels of oil per day.

President Obasanjo achieved considerable success as an international statesman, especially as a mediator in African civil wars. Some Nigerians criticized him for spending so much time on non-Nigerian problems, but Nigeria's size, oil wealth and huge population make it a natural leader in Africa.

Finally, the northern political elites, who command the largest voting bloc, felt that a third term would violate the gentlemen's agreement that brought Obasanjo to the presidency in 1999. In the wake of military dictator Sani Abacha's death in 1998, there was a Nigeria-wide consensus that something had to be done to right the wrong that was perpetrated by the cancellation of the 1993 presidential election. During that year, there was a presidential election with two candidates nominated within the two-party system established by military ruler Ibrahim Babangida. The election was held and was considered free and fair by both international and domestic observers. The winner was M.K.O. Abiola, a very wealthy Muslim Yoruba business entrepreneur from southwest Nigeria. Citing fraud, President Babangida annulled the election and appointed a highly respected civilian businessman, Ernest Shonekan, to head up a transitional government and prepare for a new election. President Babangida left office and returned to his home in Niger State in central Nigeria without ever fully explaining the basis for his decision to annul the election.

The northerners decided that the most appropriate candidate to be the first elected president of Nigeria after the end of the military dictatorship would be Obasanjo. Like the late M.K.O. Abiola, he is a Yoruba from southwestern Nigeria. In addition, Obasanjo was imprisoned, and almost executed, by dictator Abacha because of his outspoken advocacy for a return to democracy. He was, therefore, not tainted by having played an official role in Abacha's system.

The gentleman's agreement was that in return for their support of Obasanjo, the northerners would be allowed to field the winning candidate in the election to replace Obasanjo in 2007. A third term for Obasanjo, had he succeeded in amending the constitution and winning the election, would have enraged the north. During the debate over the third term amendment, there was much talk about northern secession and hints about possible violence had Obasanjo succeeded with his plans. The tension was palpable. When briefing a U.S. Congressional committee, U.S. National Intelligence Director John Negroponte expressed the view that the enactment of a third term amendment would be highly destabilizing for Nigeria. At the same time, the U.S. Ambassador in Abuja, John Campbell, issued a statement strongly advising against the amendment for the sake of preserving Nigeria's fledgling democracy.

Now that the third term amendment has been defeated, Nigeria's political campaigns for the May 2007 elections are swinging into high gear. Presidential candidates are making declarations. Existing political parties are breaking up and new ones are forming. Of special interest is the Peoples Democratic Party (P.D.P.), which has dominated Nigerian politics since Obasanjo's election under its banner in 1999. The P.D.P. is suffering from internal strife between those who supported the third term amendment and those who opposed it actively. Each group is purging the other.

Both the P.D.P. and the leading opposition party All Nigeria Peoples Party (A.N.P.P.) are hemorrhaging members to a new party called the Democratic Peoples Party (D.P.P.). There are signs that this new party may be the vehicle for a comeback attempt by former military ruler Ibrahim Babangida, who has not hidden his ambition to run for the presidency. During his military regime (1984-1993), economic management was considered to be of high quality in terms of International Monetary Fund and World Bank criteria. Internal security was also quite high. Nigerians may turn to him as the person who can deal with unrest in the Niger Delta, and who may be able to translate oil prosperity into substantial poverty reduction. As a Muslim from north-central Nigeria, Babangida should be able to win support from that key region. Nevertheless, Babangida will have to overcome the political handicap of having canceled the 1993 democratic election. [See: "Intelligence Brief: M.E.N.D. Escalates Instability in Nigeria"]

One key question for Nigerians as they move into election high season is how the recent third term amendment exercise will influence both the future of Nigerian politics and prospects for national cohesion and stability.

Despite allegations of bribery on both sides of the issue, the third term amendment exercise was conducted with a considerable amount of respect for the democratic process. This should give a boost to the pro-democracy forces in Nigeria who are working hard to make sure the next presidential election is far less flawed than Obasanjo's two victories in 1999 and 2003. In view of what has happened over the past six months, election rigging, vote buying, and dishonest vote counting are less likely to be tolerated in 2007 than in previous elections. The next Nigerian president, therefore, is likely to have greater internal legitimacy than Obasanjo.

Even with a healthy election in 2007, threats to Nigerian stability will still have to be faced by the new head of state. Insurrection in the oil-producing Niger Delta region will have to be confronted through a combination of visible development projects that create employment, and more effective counter-insurgency methods to neutralize armed elements who are terrorizing the local populations as well as threatening oil production. It is noteworthy, however, that the anti-oil insurgency in the Delta sub-region has not spread to the rest of Nigeria.

The next president will also have to start using Nigeria's huge currency reserves from high oil prices to demonstrate that the country's rural population can benefit from better road systems, reliable water and electricity, more fertilizer and farm credits and the reduction of a host of other economic infrastructure deficits that have piled up over the years. If there are no visible advances toward poverty reduction during the next president's first term, Nigeria's stability cannot be guaranteed.