Taiwan Opposition Wins Big in Parliamentary Elections
By Daniel Hollingsworth
January 14, 2008

BBC News reports that Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party handed a major defeat to President Chen Shui-bian and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in parliamentary elections held January 12, winning 81 seats in the 113-seat legislature, while the DPP only claimed 27.  The parliamentary vote comes ahead of presidential elections on March 22, and the KMT win is seen by many to bode well for KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou in his race against DPP candidate Frank Hsieh.

The Washington Post writes that a KMT win in March would signal “a decisive turn away from Chen's single-minded drive to push this self-ruled island toward formal independence.”  Chen and the DPP have made independence a major focus of its platform, and the Post adds that a cooling of the talk of independence is “a happy prospect for officials in Beijing and Washington, who have warned in concert that Chen's repeated gestures seeking to legalize Taiwan's autonomy carry the risk of crisis in the Taiwan Strait.”  The Christian Science Monitor notes that the size of the KMT majority is itself significant regardless of the presidential outcome, as the party “now has a strong enough majority to recall the president and block any moves to formalize Taiwan's de facto independence through constitutional change.”

However, analysts also caution that the parliamentary results should not be taken as a full rejection of independence or a certain indicator of a KMT victory in the presidential contest.  The Washington Post writes,

“Most of the legislative districts where Nationalists (KMT) won so handily Saturday were decided on local pork-barrel issues such as roads and irrigation projects, analysts noted. In addition, less than 60 percent of eligible voters turned out, with many more likely to vote in the presidential election -- including those who share Chen's feelings. Finally, the Nationalist triumph was attributed to irritation with Chen's leadership style and questions about his honesty rather than a broad embrace of the Nationalist party, Ma [Ying-jeou] and the promise of better relations with China.”

The long-term consequences of the KMT victory for Taiwan’s relationship with China are also unclear.  While favoring a less antagonistic approach, the KMT does not reject independence altogether, and it has also been critical of many Chinese policies toward Taiwan.  “Ma [Ying-jeou] has openly criticized China's ‘anti-secession’ law and human rights record, and demanded it withdraw missiles aimed at Taiwan before any political talks can start,” according the Christian Science Monitor.  Hsieh has also said that his approach will be more moderate than his DPP predecessor, and the Washington Post writes that Chen’s resignation as DPP chair following the parliamentary defeat will allow Hsieh “a free hand to run his campaign as he sees fit, probably with a more moderate course on China designed to appeal to middle-of-the-road voters turned off by Chen's zeal.”

References:

Washington Post: Despite Victory, Taiwanese Party Urges Caution

New York Times: Taiwan Election May Ease Tensions with China

Christian Science Monitor: Opposition win may bring Taiwan closer to China

www.ccd21.org