Ukraine: One Year Later
December 12, 2005

November 22, 2005 marked the one year anniversary of the “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine.  The celebration marking the anniversary was described as “bittersweet” by the Associated Press.  Many had come to Independence Square in Kiev hoping to see reconciliation between President Yushchenko and his former number two and partner during the Orange Revolution, Yulia Tymoshenko.  In September, Yushchenko fired Tymoshenko with much of his government.  According to the AP’s report on the anniversary event, Yushchenko took the opportunity to criticize Tymoshenko’s economic policies following a speech that Tymoshenko used as an opportunity to promote herself for the March 26 parliamentary elections next year.

The summary of a Carnegie Endowment panel assessing Ukraine’s progress since the Orange Revolution gives reason for optimism about the strength of Ukrainian democracy.  There was consensus reached that the disappointment felt by many Ukrainians in Yushchenko and the government is a “normal case of post-revolutionary letdown.”  They associated the disappointment with a struggling economy.

The summary of the panel also pointed to Ukraine’s impending accession into the World Trade Organization.  Ukraine needs only to make bilateral agreements with the United States and Australia.  In addition, the panel noted, both the EU and the US are poised to extend free market status to Ukraine’s economy.

One identified weakness that the Orange Revolution has not resolved, according to a member of the panel, is that Ukraine’s judicial system is still undeveloped.

There is much speculation as to what will happen in next year’s parliamentary elections.  Some argued that the uncertainty is a sign of democracy’s strength.  The elections offer the government the possibility to further reforms that “are frustrated by the parliament, which was elected in an unfree, unfair vote.”  It is unclear whether a new orange coalition might result in Tymoshenko as prime minister or the current prime minister, Yekhanurov, might retain his post.  The panel noted that there is also the possibility that the party associated with the ex-president Kuchma might regain power.  The panel did not predict how such a result might influence the direction of Ukrainian democracy.

Sources:
Associated Press, November 23, 2005

Carnegie Endowment Panel Summary, November 22, 2005

Paula J. Dobriansky, Under Secretary for Democracy and Global Affairs, Remarks to the American Enterprise Institute, December 5, 2005