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Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: Results & Implications
April 26, 2006 |  Printer Friendly
At a Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty briefing on April 12, 2006 regional analysts Jan Maksymiuk of RFE/RL and Taras Kuzio currently at George Washington University discussed the domestic and geopolitical effects of Ukraine’s March 26 Parliamentary elections, which Marksymiuk called the “most free and free elections since independence held for parliament.” The experts discussed election results, potential coalitions, as well as the implications for EU and NATO membership.
I. The Election Results
European monitors lauded the recent Parliamentary elections as “exemplary and democratic.” The “Party of Regions,” which is regarded by many as “pro-Russian,” won a plurality with 186 seats. The Orange Coalition parties came in second and third, with Yulia Tymoshenko’s Bloc (BYT) winning 129 seats, and President Yushchenko’s “Our Ukraine” Party winning 81. Ukraine’s socialist party won 33 seats, and 21 seats went to a waning communist party. To form a government, parties will have to organize into a coalition with at least 226 seats.
II. Return of the Orange Coalition?
The most likely coalition to emerge would be a refrain of the Orange Coalition comprised of Tymoshenko’s Bloc, Our Ukraine, and the Socialists. Maksymiuk referred to survey data that suggested that a plurality of 44% Ukrainians want the Orange coalition re-established. However, this coalition would only give the government a narrow margin and will be fragile because the Socialist faction disagrees with the other two parties on many issues including land ownership, tariff policy, privatization, and Ukraine membership in the WTO and NATO. On April 12, The Washington Post’s Anna Melnichuk reported that leaders of these parties have “signed a protocol aimed at advancing the formation of a coalition government.” More talks will be needed until an official coalition will be declared.
III. NATO membership
Kuzio asserted that Ukraine’s 2004 vote for Yushchenko was a vote for Euro-Atlantic integration. Since the Orange Revolution, Ukraine has achieved free market status, and WTO membership is likely to be granted in 2006. External conditions currently favor Ukraine’s membership prospects. The Bush administration supports Ukraine membership, and Ukraine’s democratic transition also fits Bush’s democracy promotion agenda, suggesting that he would like to leave office in 2008 with an invitation to Ukraine to join NATO. If the nation continues to improve its democratic institutions and if a pro-West coalition remains in power, experts say, Ukraine could be a member of NATO as early as 2010.
Domestic support for NATO membership remains tenuous within Ukraine, however. The leftist Parties in Ukraine are entirely opposed to NATO membership, and hostility toward NATO remains within the ranks of the Party of Regions. Thus, Kuzio suggests that an Orange-coalition is a necessary but not sufficient condition for Ukraine to stay on track to NATO membership. Even with its 210 votes, Tymoshenko’s Bloc and “Our Ukraine” will have to split the Party of Regions and procure at least 50 more votes to proceed with the NATO membership process, which could be challenging, though not necessarily impossible.
However, even if the Orange-Coalition garners parliamentary support to proceed with the NATO process, a referendum will be required in 2009-2010 for final accession. Ultimately, gaining the support of the people and not just the parties will be the biggest challenge on the way to NATO membership. Kuzio suggests that a state led campaign will be needed to win public support for NATO membership. In the 1990s Ukrainians were equally divided with roughly a third for membership, a third against, and a third ambivalent. In the wake of the Kosovo situation and the Iraq War, public support for joining NATO has waned.
IV. EU Membership Prospects
Virtually all Ukrainian parties support Ukrainian membership in the European Union; however, the EU continues to be passive on this issue. As the BBC reports, the President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso told Ukraine last year that its future is "in Europe." He cautioned, however, that Ukraine would do well to put off talks about membership for now, but rather “take concrete steps that showed commitment to European values.”
Kuzio points to tensions surrounding EU expansion eastward as well as Turkey’s bid for membership as a source of European reticence to extending Ukraine an invitation to join in the near future. In the run-up to the elections the EU Commissioner, Benita Ferrero-Waldner stopped short of suggesting that successful elections would put Ukraine on track to membership, saying “conduct of these polls will be key to determining whether we can take the next steps to deepening our relationship.” While membership seems to be a longer-term prospect, the success of the recent elections has reaffirmed Ukrainian commitment to democracy, and the emergence of a pro-Western coalition also bodes well for the development of EU-Ukraine relations in a positive direction.
Resources
"Ukrainian Parties Move Closer to Coalition”
by Anna Melnichuk
Washington Post (4/13/06)
"Ukraine’s Orange Hero Loses Zest”
By Steven Eke
BBC News (3/27/06)
"Ukraine told that EU door is open”
BBC News (6/10/05)
"Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner to Visit Ukraine 2-3 March”
The European Commission’s Delegation to Ukraine
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